Ben Burns | CFB Side Wed, 10/21/09 - 8:00 PM
triple-dime bet 302 UTEP 8.0 (-110) Bodog vs 301 Tulsa
Analysis: I'm taking the points with UTEP. The Miners came through for me in a big way a few weeks ago. Listed as double-digit underdogs, they blew out Houston by a score of 58-41. That victory showed what this team is capable of, when "clicking on all cylinders." However, the Miners had a letdown in their next game (I didn't play them in that one) suffering a disappointing 35-20 loss at Memphis. That result has helped to provide us with a very generous line to work with this week. Note that further value has been provided by the fact that the line has climbed from its opener. While I have a lot of respect for Tulsa, I expect the Miners to bounce back here and for them to look a lot more like the team which defeated Houston than the one which lost at Memphis.
Note that the Houston victory was here at home while the Memphis loss was on the road. Speaking of the Memphis loss, it should ensure that the UTEP players are focused on practicing and improving and keep them from becoming over-confident. (Off the big win over Houston, if they'd also beaten Memphis, they might have started to pat themselves on the back a little.)
The Miners have the schedule in their favor here. Tulsa is coming off a hard-fought loss on National TV (vs. Boise State) last Wednesday. Everyone saw Tu‡lsa hold its own and get the cover, further helping us in terms of line value. UTEP, on the other hand, is coming off a bye, having last played on Oct. 10. That gives them plenty of time to prepare.
The Miners should also have a motivational edge. In addition to playing a nationally televised game in front of their home fans, they were destroyed at Tulsa last season. In fact, "destroyed" may not even be a strong enough word. Indeed, the Golden Hurricane scored 77 points (77-35) and racked up nearly 800 (791) total yards of offense. With 55 returning lettermen (most in CUSA) and 15 returning starters, it's safe to say that the Miners haven't forgotten that game and that they've had this year's matchup circled ever since.
The home team has dominated this series recently, having won five straight. I'll grab the points but I believe that the Miners are more than capable of keeping that streak alive with an outright victory. 10* Top Wed. Report
